[csaa-forum] Cunningham

[Helen Wilson]

Thanks for this interesting post Rob. I see the SMH is saying Anthony is
about to concede due to the seachangers in Byron giving Green preferences to
Labor. We seachangers may be a new force in Australian politics, who knows?

Before this discussion finishes I'd like to report my situation as a new
resident of Cunningham (Wollongong) where we are mourning the loss of a
Green lower house member and a return to what appears to be management by
the ALP machine that as in Page doesn't care about this regional,
postindustrial and coastal electorate. Michael Organ was elected in fluke
circumstances in a by election in 2002 where people were fed up with the ALP
over imposing a candidate and the Libs didn't stand. However this time they
did and got more primary votes than the Greens.

Probably few Australians will experience having a Green local member so here
are some of the elements of the nostalgia in Cunningham:
*a sense of power that local struggles (specifically over coastal
development and Aboriginal heritage at Sandon Pt) can lead to bigger things
*our MP being without personal ambition but identifying as part of the
Illawarra Greens community, a large and inclusive network with much
experience and expertise
*the MP as part of a local community, often seen riding his bike, doing
bushcare and attending the P&C to listen to teachers and parents rather than
handing out prizes
*absolutely no need to lobby him over reconciliation, the war, refugee
policy, free trade, etc
*meeting a pensioner out letterboxing for the Greens saying it was the least
he could do when Michael had done so much to sort out his pension problems

We're left to puzzle why despite an enthusiastic and well run campaign with
lots of local media coverage, Michael Organ couldn't increase his vote
beyond 20% this time. Besides security and interest rates, could it be due
to the Christian backlash on drugs, same sex marriage etc? And what sort of
organisation can the Greens be with little parliamentary presence? What
place can they feasibly have in our electoral system? Is a clean environment
part of a selfish aspirational mindset?

Helen


----- Original Message -----
From: "Rob Garbutt" <rgarbutt at scu.edu.au>
To: <csaa-forum at darlin.cdu.edu.au>
Sent: Tuesday, October 19, 2004 4:49 PM
Subject: [csaa-forum] Re: Marginal


> Brett,
>
> Yes, I guess I was responding to my sense that the significance of
> categories like "aspirational" can take on a priority that lasts just
> for a moment and in that moment appear to mean something.
>
> As to what "the mood of the people" is in Lismore (Page) I could not
> say definitively other than that Ian Causley (National) increased his
> majority and the Socialist Alliance vote has dropped. Possible
> reasons(?):
> * an atavistic longing for security and stability that the Coalition
> does so well,
> * a fear of rising interest rates within a traditionally conservative
> region. Here housing prices have doubled in the last 3 years as
> people come inland because they can no longer afford to live on the
> coast (see below), and
> * and a feeling that Federal Labor has not at all been helped by the
> Carr government which is really on the nose - a rotting carcass my
> friend Perry would say - he a rusted on Socialist Alliance voter. Bob
> the Builder has closed the Casino-Murwillumbah rail line while
> increasing funding of CityRail (nothing like a city-bush inequity to
> get the rural blood boiling), moved a number of government services
> south to Newcastle (ditto) and failed to fund key pieces of road
> infrastructure despite repeated promises (ditto).
>
> In neighbouring Richmond we are still watching with interest as
> Justine Elliot and Larry Anthony pick over the postal and prepoll
> votes. Labor is still in the lead (though if you read the Sydney
> Morning Herald it is the other way round) but only just at last look
> - Larry's not done yet. This possible change in fortune for the
> Anthony dynasty has much to do with demographic changes that have
> seen the coastal strip from Ballina through Byron Bay to Tweed Heads
> go bonkers with an influx from who knows where but they have a lot of
> money and by and large vote Green. What can explain that?
>
> Regards,
> Rob.
>
> >Thanks Rob,
> >
> >I think you make a fair comment. But I guess I was trying to refocus from
> >the emphasis on consumption. ...  But, given the
> >way discussion was flowing, I thought it might be productive to restate
in
> >a way that might carry some weight.
> >
> >Maybe you have something more to say about
> >how things played out in your neck of the woods?
> >
> >Brett
>
> --
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